Macau’s six concessionaires are prepared for 2020 to arrive, since this year has been a bumpy one on the peninsula, partly due to fears that the Chinese economy is slowing. According to analysts, if China’s growth becomes stable next year, sentiment should get better for gaming operators.

Although policymakers in Beijing are working to expand the peninsula’s local economy away from gaming, that process will take time. For the moment, Asia’s leading casino destination remains highly dependent on gaming revenue, since in the first 11 months of 2019, the industry accounted for 86 percent of taxes collected there.

For 2020, some analysts view the magic number for Macau as six percent. As in that’s the level of GDP growth China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, needs to maintain to boost the outlook for the gaming hub.

A team of analysts from the research firm said,

“The consensus estimate for 2020 GDP growth in China is +5.9 percent, but Nomura’s economists expect 6.1-percent GDP growth next year.”

China sustaining growth of six percent is significant not only to Macau, but to the global investment community too, since the economy there hasn’t notched increases below that level in nearly three decades. Mainland China accounted for approximately three-quarters of the visits to Macau through the first eight months of this year.

Counting On The Second Half

As reported by, a good number of investment banks have made 2020 forecasts for a variety of markets over the past several weeks, with the prevailing wisdom for Macau being that in the second half of the new year, the Special Administrative Region (SAR) could experience a gross gaming revenue (GGR) rebound as comparables to 2019 numbers become easier to beat.

Analysts indicate the post-June 2020 horizon as a possible bounce back for the gaming hub because that will give sufficient time for the effects of the US/China trade quarrel and recent visa controls to abate.

The brokerage house said,

“If Nomura’s economists are right, and China GDP growth doesn’t decelerate next year, then we would expect a corresponding lift in player sentiment.”

The research firm is sure that next year, Macau GGR can increase one percent to three percent.

Beijing Efforts

Currently China’s economic output is equivalent to about $13 trillion. However, import growth has been slow this year amid the trade war with the US, weighing on growth.

According to Bloomberg,

“China’s import growth has stalled this year amid the broader slowdown in the economy, helping to widen the trade surplus. As part of the phase one trade deal agreed with the US this month, the nation has committed to ramping up purchases from there by as much as $200 billion over the next two years.”

Beijing has been proactive in recent years, in decreasing the economy’s dependence on exports and has worked to increase domestic consumption. As long as the six percent GDP growth mark holds, those efforts could show results in the form of more visits to Macau in 2020.

Damaris is a seasoned writer and analyst of the gambling market with several years of experience writing for various blogs and websites worldwide. He has worked with several casino startups and is a supporter of credible casino projects worldwide.
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